Number of participants: 2034
Cities covered: İstanbul, İzmir, Ankara, Diyarbakır, Erzurum, Hatay, Konya, Bursa, Balıkesir, Trabzon, Samsun, Tokat, Malatya
Margin of Error: ±1.8%
Question 1: Which party would you vote for if the elections were held tomorrow?
Cumhur Alliance (AKP-MHP): 36.3%
Millet Alliance(CHP-İYİ Party): 36.9%
Sub-question 1: Breakdown of the Undecided
Commentary: IYI Party seems to be the only party to have increased its vote even before the undecided voters are distributed. Moreover, according to findings not shown in this summary, IYI Party seems to increase its vote by drawing from former AKP supporters, while DEVA and Gelecek, split from AKP and led by former AKP ministers, underperform and are well below their expectations in terms of drawing voters from AKP. High percentage of the undecided is especially important as most of the undecided are unproportionally former AKP (And to some degree, MHP) voters, which are expected to determine the outcome of the actual elections. We therefore believe that distributing the undecided voters mathematically would not give a realistic result. Only IYI Party and HDP seem to have consolidated their voters.
Question 2: Which Presidental Candidate would you vote for if the elections were held tomorrow?
Commentary: The portion of the undecided is lower compared to party question, which might mean that though AKP voters still have somewhat confidence in Erdoğan, they lost faith in the party’s management.
In the scenario where all party leaders compete as independent candidates, Mrs. Akşener surprisingly outperforms her party, the exact opposite of the previous elections in which she got less votes than her party, mostly interpreted as former CHP voters voting IYI Party did vote for CHP’s candidate in order to avoid fragmenting the opposition block. The main reason behind current popularity of Mrs. Akşener might be that Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu and CHP showed signs of cooperation with HDP, which pushed nationalist/conservative leaning opposition voters towards Mrs. Akşener.
Both party leaders as their alliance’s joint candidates underperform compared with Erdoğan, both increasing the percentage of the undecided. Moreover, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu seems to draw more HDP voters but push some to Mr. Erdoğan’s side, while Mrs. Akşener draws from Erdoğan but increases HDP&Undecided percentage.
There is no meaningful difference between the popularity of two mayors, Ekrem İmamoğlu of İstanbul and Mansur Yavaş of Ankara, when they are offered as competing candidates in the same ballot. Moreover, the portion of the undecided decreases compared to the scenario involving party leaders, which might be interpreted as the voters are more inclined to see mayors as candidates.
When offered as separate candidates, both mayors outperform Erdoğan, however there is a crucial difference which may affect the outcome of actual elections. Mr. İmamoğlu seems to attract more voters from HDP, and if Mr. Yavaş runs for presidency, votes for HDP’s candidate increases and are consolidated, or, in case HDP does not run for presidency, HDP voters become undecided or protest the elections.
Question 3: (MHP voters) Would you support an independent nationalist candidate running for presidency?
Sub-question: Name any candidate you would like to see to run as independent, nationalist presidential candidate (MHP voters)
Commentary: MHP suffers the most voter loss compared to the previous elections and the voter base seems to be slightly discontent. In case one of the former MHP executives run for presidency, he is likely to receive around %1, which might prove influential as slight differences are expected to determine the outcome. According to findings not shown in this summary, this portion increases to around %2 in case Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu runs as the joint candidate of Millet Alliance, some of the disappointed IYI Party voters tend to vote for an independent nationalist candidate.